In Big Sky Bonus under the 4/31 + 1/16 · since Oct 2024 rules — 726 draws, 4 from 1–31.
90times drawn · chance expected 94 −0.41σ
8draws waiting · a wait this long: 38% for any number
8.0average wait between appearances · chance says 7.8
53longest completed wait · 7% chance of one at least that long
16 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 90 times in 726 draws against 93.7 expected, −0.41σ. Each draw is independent: after 8 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
16
Number 16, draw by draw
Drawn 90 times in 726 draws · average wait 8.0 draws · longest completed wait 53 · waiting 8 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 16 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 30 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 16 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 31. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 16 is drawn with probability 4/31 tonight whatever it did last week.