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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Mega Millions · draw
ResultMega Millions
Jackpot$1,350,000,000
The crowdHeld 5% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/70 + 1/25 · Oct 2017 – Apr 2025draw 544 of 776 under them
Sources3 independent sources agree, 2 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:47 UTC.
Mega Millions was a 5/70 + 1/25 · Oct 2017 – Apr 2025 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 543 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 13 January 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 33 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 11% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 39 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 543 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (30, 46, 61) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 31 December 2021 — its closest relative in 543 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 61% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (10 January 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 225 — the 85th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 178. Side-by-side numbers: 45–46. 26% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →30 had not appeared for 23 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 54% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈141M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 3,277 winners, 10% fewer than the 3.6k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 3,853,148 | $2.00 |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 1,541,628 | $4.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 194,905 | $10.00 |
| Match 3 | 220,826 | $10.00 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 9,276 | $200 |
| Match 4 | 3,277 | $500 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 137 | $10,000 |
| Match 5 | 14 | $1,000,000 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 1 | $1,350,000,000 |