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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Mega Millions · draw
ResultMega Millions
Jackpot$380,000,000
The crowdHeld 12% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/70 + 1/25 · Oct 2017 – Apr 2025draw 515 of 776 under them
Sources3 independent sources agree, 2 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:47 UTC.
Mega Millions was a 5/70 + 1/25 · Oct 2017 – Apr 2025 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 514 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 4 October 2022 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 33 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 11% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 37 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 514 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (15, 25, 38) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 1 September 2020 — its closest relative in 514 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 59% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (30 September 2022): nothing carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 129 — the 14th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 178. No two numbers side by side. 26% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →33 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 35% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈14M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 25,364 winners, 12% more than the 23k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little more popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 374,585 | $2.00 |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 156,983 | $4.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 21,136 | $10.00 |
| Match 3 | 25,364 | $10.00 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 1,036 | $200 |
| Match 4 | 381 | $500 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 14 | $10,000 |
| Match 5 | 2 | $1,000,000 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | $380,000,000 |