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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Mega Millions · draw
ResultMega Millions
Jackpot$282,000,000
The crowdHeld 5% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/75 + 1/15 · Oct 2013 – Oct 2017draw 394 of 420 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:47 UTC.
Mega Millions was a 5/75 + 1/15 · Oct 2013 – Oct 2017 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 393 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 28 July 2017 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 70 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 91% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 26 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 393 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (4, 31, 49) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 20 December 2013 — its closest relative in 393 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 43% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (25 July 2017): nothing carried over. Chance says 30% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 142 — the 16th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 190. No two numbers side by side. 25% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →6 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 15 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 38% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈33M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 592 winners, 7% fewer than the 633 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 1,564,084 | $1.00 |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 613,235 | $2.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 74,360 | $5.00 |
| Match 3 | 43,979 | $5.00 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 3,145 | $50.00 |
| Match 4 | 592 | $500 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 39 | $5,000 |
| Match 5 | 2 | $1,000,000 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | $282,000,000 |