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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Tuesday, 3 March 2026

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 10
  2. 15
  3. 16
  4. 17
  5. 24
  6. 12

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 23% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,935 of 3,063 under them

← 2026-02-28All recent draws2026-03-04 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed10 15 16 17 24 + 1229 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 3 March 2026 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

27oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 27 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 7% of every possible ticket.

  • sum23th
  • odd31th
  • low89th
  • widest gap8th
  • neighbours96th
  • spread4th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 376 of each

10381times
15388times
16369times
17363times
24

Prize breakdown · 2026-03-03

  • Lines in play≈ 852kas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£438.4Kto 73k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.11

Where the money went

  • Match 322%£95.1K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball30%£132.0K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball20%£88.2K
  • 5 other tiers28%£123.1K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.11 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

383times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 210 of each

12208times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,934 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (15, 16, 17, 24) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 3 March 2017 — its closest relative in 2,934 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 58% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (28 February 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

82

The numbers add up to 82 — the 22th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16, 16–17. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

10 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 52≈ 1.4 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball14≈ 18 by chance£250
  • Match 4296≈ 234 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball635≈ 593 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball6,725≈ 6.3k by chance£10.00
  • Match 39,512≈ 7.7k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball26,400≈ 25k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball29,410≈ 29k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈852k lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 9,512 winners, 23% more than the 7.7k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little more popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball29,410£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball26,400£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball6,725£10.00
    Match 39,512£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball635£20.00
    Match 4296£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball14£250
    Match 52£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000