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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Wednesday, 14 August 2024

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 11
  2. 15
  3. 16
  4. 17
  5. 28
  6. 10

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 35% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,612 of 3,064 under them

← 2024-08-13All recent draws2024-08-16 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed11 15 16 17 28 + 1029 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 14 August 2024 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

41oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 41 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 24% of every possible ticket.

  • sum30th
  • odd64th
  • low89th
  • widest gap34th
  • neighbours96th
  • spread9th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 335 of each

11341times
15346times
16328times
17319times
28

Prize breakdown · 2024-08-14

  • Lines in play≈ 1.1Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£572.9Kto 95k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 11lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.13

Where the money went

  • Match 323%£130.6K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball30%£170.0K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball19%£110.9K
  • 5 other tiers28%£161.4K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.13 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

342times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 187 of each

10179times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,611 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (11, 15, 16, 17) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 29 September 2020 — its closest relative in 2,611 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 54% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 August 2024): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

87

The numbers add up to 87 — the 29th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16, 16–17. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

17 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 51≈ 1.7 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball21≈ 23 by chance£250
  • Match 4407≈ 294 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball905≈ 746 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball9,230≈ 8.0k by chance£10.00
  • Match 313,057≈ 9.7k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball34,005≈ 31k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball36,978≈ 37k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.1M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 13,057 winners, 35% more than the 9.7k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball36,978£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball34,005£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball9,230£10.00
    Match 313,057£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball905£20.00
    Match 4407£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball21£250
    Match 51£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000