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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Saturday, 20 July 2024

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 12
  2. 13
  3. 14
  4. 16
  5. 18
  6. 3

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,598 of 3,064 under them

← 2024-07-19All recent draws2024-07-23 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed12 13 14 16 18 + 329 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 20 July 2024 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

9oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 9 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 0% of every possible ticket.

  • sum13th
  • odd9th
  • low99th
  • widest gap0th
  • neighbours96th
  • spread0th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 333 of each

12307times
13327times
14308times
16327times
18

Prize breakdown · 2024-07-20

  • Lines in play≈ 1.6Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£821.9Kto 138k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.20

Where the money went

  • Match 318%£148.1K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball32%£259.0K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball21%£170.8K
  • 5 other tiers30%£244.1K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.20 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

358times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 186 of each

3211times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,597 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (12, 13, 14, 16) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 27 July 2016 — its closest relative in 2,597 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 54% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 July 2024): 13, 18 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

73

The numbers add up to 73 — the 13th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 12–13, 13–14. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

12 had not appeared for 7 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 55≈ 2.7 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball39≈ 35 by chance£250
  • Match 4579≈ 452 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,146≈ 1.1k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball12,857≈ 12k by chance£10.00
  • Match 314,805≈ 15k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball51,799≈ 47k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball56,917≈ 57k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.6M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 1 plus Bonus Ball — 51,799 winners, 9% more than the 47k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball56,917£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball51,799£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball12,857£10.00
    Match 314,805£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,146£20.00
    Match 4579£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball39£250
    Match 55£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000