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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Tuesday, 23 July 2024

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 9
  2. 11
  3. 31
  4. 33
  5. 38
  6. 11

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,599 of 3,064 under them

← 2024-07-20All recent draws2024-07-24 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed9 11 31 33 38 + 1129 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 23 July 2024 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

46oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 46 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 35% of every possible ticket.

  • sum82th
  • odd89th
  • low31th
  • widest gap91th
  • neighbours28th
  • spread59th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 333 of each

9310times
11338times
31351times
33326times
38

Prize breakdown · 2024-07-23

  • Lines in play≈ 956kas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£464.2Kto 79k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.12

Where the money went

  • Match 318%£85.4K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball31%£145.2K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball21%£99.0K
  • 5 other tiers29%£134.6K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.12 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

328times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 186 of each

11181times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,598 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (9, 11, 38) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 12 March 2024 — its closest relative in 2,598 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (20 July 2024): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

122

The numbers add up to 122 — the 81th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

9 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 52≈ 1.5 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball36≈ 20 by chance£250
  • Match 4219≈ 262 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball739≈ 665 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball7,894≈ 7.1k by chance£10.00
  • Match 38,539≈ 8.6k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball29,037≈ 27k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball32,995≈ 33k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈956k lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 2 plus Bonus Ball — 7,894 winners, 11% more than the 7.1k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little more popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball32,995£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball29,037£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball7,894£10.00
    Match 38,539£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball739£20.00
    Match 4219£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball36£250
    Match 52£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000