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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Friday, 24 November 2023

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 9
  2. 15
  3. 16
  4. 22
  5. 30
  6. 2

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 26% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,461 of 3,064 under them

← 2023-11-22All recent draws2023-11-25 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed9 15 16 22 30 + 229 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 24 November 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

54oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 54 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 57% of every possible ticket.

  • sum37th
  • odd31th
  • low64th
  • widest gap12th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread20th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 315 of each

9293times
15318times
16312times
22327times
30

Prize breakdown · 2023-11-24

  • Lines in play≈ 1.1Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£545.4Kto 90k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.13

Where the money went

  • Match 322%£121.6K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball29%£159.5K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball20%£110.2K
  • 5 other tiers28%£154.1K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.13 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

357times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 176 of each

2163times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,460 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (9, 15, 16, 30) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 18 May 2019 — its closest relative in 2,460 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 52% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (22 November 2023): 30 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

92

The numbers add up to 92 — the 36th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

9 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.0× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 52≈ 1.7 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball27≈ 22 by chance£250
  • Match 4364≈ 292 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball836≈ 740 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball8,427≈ 7.9k by chance£10.00
  • Match 312,164≈ 9.6k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball31,890≈ 31k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball36,721≈ 37k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.1M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 12,164 winners, 26% more than the 9.6k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball36,721£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball31,890£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball8,427£10.00
    Match 312,164£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball836£20.00
    Match 4364£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball27£250
    Match 52£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000