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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Saturday, 12 August 2023

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 8
  2. 19
  3. 20
  4. 23
  5. 37
  6. 1

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 18% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,402 of 3,064 under them

← 2023-08-11All recent draws2023-08-15 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed8 19 20 23 37 + 129 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 12 August 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

72oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 72 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 97% of every possible ticket.

  • sum61th
  • odd64th
  • low64th
  • widest gap60th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread59th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 308 of each

8296times
19316times
20307times
23300times
37

Prize breakdown · 2023-08-12

  • Lines in play≈ 1.5Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£740.6Kto 125k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.19

Where the money went

  • Match 322%£162.1K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball30%£220.3K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball21%£157.4K
  • 5 other tiers27%£200.9K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.19 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

284times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 172 of each

1175times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,401 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (19, 20, 23) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 13 January 2023 — its closest relative in 2,401 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 August 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

107

The numbers add up to 107 — the 60th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 19–20. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

23 had not appeared for 27 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 54≈ 2.5 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball21≈ 32 by chance£250
  • Match 4437≈ 417 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball992≈ 1.1k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball11,209≈ 11k by chance£10.00
  • Match 316,210≈ 14k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball44,055≈ 44k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball52,456≈ 52k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.5M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 16,210 winners, 18% more than the 14k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little more popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball52,456£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball44,055£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball11,209£10.00
    Match 316,210£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball992£20.00
    Match 4437£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball21£250
    Match 54£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000