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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Friday, 11 August 2023

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 2
  2. 15
  3. 24
  4. 26
  5. 30
  6. 6

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 8% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,401 of 3,064 under them

← 2023-08-09All recent draws2023-08-12 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed2 15 24 26 30 + 629 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 11 August 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

70oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 70 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 94% of every possible ticket.

  • sum45th
  • odd9th
  • low31th
  • widest gap51th
  • neighbours28th
  • spread53th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 308 of each

2304times
15309times
24318times
26319times
30

Prize breakdown · 2023-08-11

  • Lines in play≈ 1.1Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£542.9Kto 93k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.14

Where the money went

  • Match 321%£111.3K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball30%£164.8K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball22%£117.6K
  • 5 other tiers27%£149.2K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.14 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

345times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 171 of each

6158times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,400 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (2, 15, 24, 30) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 1 May 2010 — its closest relative in 2,400 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 51% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (9 August 2023): 24 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

97

The numbers add up to 97 — the 44th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

15 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 51≈ 1.8 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball21≈ 24 by chance£250
  • Match 4355≈ 311 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball859≈ 791 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball8,623≈ 8.4k by chance£10.00
  • Match 311,133≈ 10k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball32,957≈ 33k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball39,209≈ 39k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.1M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 plus Bonus Ball — 859 winners, 9% more than the 791 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball39,209£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball32,957£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball8,623£10.00
    Match 311,133£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball859£20.00
    Match 4355£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball21£250
    Match 51£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000