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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Saturday, 15 April 2023

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 10
  2. 11
  3. 21
  4. 23
  5. 39
  6. 9

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 2% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,334 of 3,064 under them

← 2023-04-14All recent draws2023-04-18 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed10 11 21 23 39 + 929 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 April 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

59oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 59 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 72% of every possible ticket.

  • sum56th
  • odd89th
  • low31th
  • widest gap74th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread59th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 299 of each

10307times
11295times
21309times
23297times
39

Prize breakdown · 2023-04-15

  • Lines in play≈ 2.0Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£950.1Kto 165k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.25

Where the money went

  • Match 319%£183.6K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball32%£299.9K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball22%£205.8K
  • 5 other tiers27%£260.8K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.25 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

286times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 167 of each

9140times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,333 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (11, 21, 23) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 23 December 2022 — its closest relative in 2,333 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (14 April 2023): 23 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 9 repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

104

The numbers add up to 104 — the 56th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 10–11. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

11 had not appeared for 28 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 53≈ 3.2 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball40≈ 42 by chance£250
  • Match 4510≈ 545 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,444≈ 1.4k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball15,592≈ 15k by chance£10.00
  • Match 318,357≈ 18k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball59,988≈ 57k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball68,595≈ 69k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈2.0M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 510 winners, 6% fewer than the 545 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball68,595£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball59,988£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball15,592£10.00
    Match 318,357£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,444£20.00
    Match 4510£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball40£250
    Match 53£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000