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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Wednesday, 23 October 2019

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 9
  2. 10
  3. 18
  4. 28
  5. 29
  6. 4

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 21% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 1,608 of 3,063 under them

← 2019-10-22All recent draws2019-10-25 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed9 10 18 28 29 + 429 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 23 October 2019 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

51oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 51 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 49% of every possible ticket.

  • sum40th
  • odd31th
  • low64th
  • widest gap26th
  • neighbours96th
  • spread17th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 206 of each

9197times
10212times
18215times
28202times
29

Prize breakdown · 2019-10-23

  • Lines in play≈ 1.3Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£687.8Kto 114k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.16

Where the money went

  • Match 321%£143.8K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball30%£203.3K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball20%£136.6K
  • 5 other tiers30%£204.1K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.16 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

218times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 115 of each

4118times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,607 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (9, 10, 28) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 11 September 2019 — its closest relative in 1,607 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (22 October 2019): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

94

The numbers add up to 94 — the 40th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 9–10, 28–29. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

10 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 54≈ 2.1 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball28≈ 28 by chance£250
  • Match 4415≈ 362 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,039≈ 918 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball11,479≈ 9.8k by chance£10.00
  • Match 314,378≈ 12k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball40,668≈ 38k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball45,520≈ 46k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.3M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 14,378 winners, 21% more than the 12k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little more popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball45,520£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball40,668£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball11,479£10.00
    Match 314,378£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,039£20.00
    Match 4415£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball28£250
    Match 54£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000