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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Monday, 18 December 2023

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20233151
  1. 3
  2. 15
  3. 16
  4. 30
  5. 41
  6. 9

Jackpot€3,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 2,379 of 3,001 under them

← 2023-12-16All recent draws2023-12-20 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official3 15 16 30 41 + 923 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed3 15 16 30 41 + 929 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 18 December 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

62oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 62 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 77% of every possible ticket.

  • sum26th
  • odd65th
  • low65th
  • widest gap35th
  • neighbours80th
  • spread67th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 243 of each

3249times
15267times
16251times
30233times
41

Prize breakdown · 2023-12-18

  • Lines in play≈ 2.9Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€2.2Mto 486k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 6lines took a prize
  • rang10 winnerschance said 0.15

Where the money went

  • rang612%€262.5K
  • rang836%€799.0K
  • rang927%€597.5K
  • 5 other tiers26%€571.4K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. rang10≈ 0.15 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

281times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 238 of each

9249times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,378 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (15, 16, 30, 41) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 29 November 2010 — its closest relative in 2,378 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 24% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 December 2023): 15, 30 carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

105

The numbers add up to 105 — the 25th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

3 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€3,000,000
  • rang21≈ 1.4 by chance€138,974
  • rang326≈ 34 by chance€1,305
  • rang4269≈ 302 by chance€455
  • rang51,361≈ 1.4k by chance€53.70
  • rang612,096≈ 13k by chance€21.70
  • rang719,528≈ 20k by chance€10.40
  • rang8181,595≈ 182k by chance€4.40
  • rang9271,585€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈2.9M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang6 — 12,096 winners, 7% fewer than the 13k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang10€3,000,000
    rang21€138,974
    rang326€1,305
    rang4269€455
    rang51,361€53.70
    rang612,096€21.70
    rang719,528€10.40
    rang8181,595€4.40
    rang9271,585€2.20