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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Saturday, 15 August 2020

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20200098
  1. 3
  2. 5
  3. 15
  4. 41
  5. 42
  6. 7

Jackpot€9,000,000

The crowdHeld 33% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 1,856 of 3,001 under them

← 2020-08-12All recent draws2020-08-17 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official3 5 15 41 42 + 723 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed3 5 15 41 42 + 729 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 August 2020 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

43oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 43 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 28% of every possible ticket.

  • sum27th
  • odd89th
  • low65th
  • widest gap92th
  • neighbours80th
  • spread71th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 189 of each

3190times
5185times
15202times
41224times
42

Prize breakdown · 2020-08-15

  • Lines in play≈ 4.6Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€12.7Mto 995k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 5lines took a prize
  • rang11 winnerchance said 0.24

Where the money went

  • rang171%€9.0M
  • rang88.9%€1.1M
  • rang911%€1.4M
  • 6 other tiers9.2%€1.2M
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. rang11≈ 0.24 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

174times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 186 of each

7210times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,855 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (3, 15, 41, 42) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 23 January 2016 — its closest relative in 1,855 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 19% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (12 August 2020): 3 carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

106

The numbers add up to 106 — the 27th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. Side-by-side numbers: 41–42. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

41 had not appeared for 39 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€9,000,000
  • rang21≈ 2.2 by chance€193,954
  • rang354≈ 53 by chance€877
  • rang4356≈ 481 by chance€480
  • rang52,941≈ 2.3k by chance€34.60
  • rang618,340≈ 21k by chance€20.00
  • rang747,023≈ 32k by chance€6.00
  • rang8289,806≈ 290k by chance€3.90
  • rang9636,221€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈4.6M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang7 — 47,023 winners, 46% more than the 32k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang11€9,000,000
    rang21€193,954
    rang354€877
    rang4356€480
    rang52,941€34.60
    rang618,340€20.00
    rang747,023€6.00
    rang8289,806€3.90
    rang9636,221€2.20