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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£14,570,700
The crowdHeld 22% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/12 · since Sep 2016draw 1,041 of 1,041 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 15 Sept 2026, 21:01 UTC.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 September 2026 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 21 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 3% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 104 of each
Times drawn before — chance expected 173 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 1,040 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 5 numbers (10, 16, 18, 22) and 1 of 2 stars with the draw of 28 June 2024 — its closest relative in 1,040 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 11% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (11 September 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (32% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 94 — the 14th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →22 had not appeared for 27 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 2.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈15M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 1,859 winners, 76% more than the 1.1k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 810,916 | £2.40 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 336,498 | £3.60 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 77,615 | £4.90 |
| Match 3 | 63,143 | £5.00 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 16,273 | £9.40 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 26,222 | £6.50 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 1,239 | £35.40 |
| Match 4 | 1,859 | £16.50 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 786 | £52.80 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 32 | £704 |
| Match 5 | 10 | £7,238 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 7 | £44,240 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £14,570,700 |