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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£44,214,819
The crowdHeld 37% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/12 · since Sep 2016draw 842 of 1,049 under them
Sources2 independent sources agree, none of them official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 18 October 2024 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 65 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 85% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 84 of each
Times drawn before — chance expected 140 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 841 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (15, 23, 30) and 0 of 2 stars with the draw of 10 July 2020 — its closest relative in 841 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 98% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (15 October 2024): 15 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (32% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 111 — the 30th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →39 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈20M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 2,170 winners, 49% more than the 1.5k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 1,256,893 | £2.60 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 432,047 | £4.70 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 107,220 | £6.00 |
| Match 3 | 94,852 | £5.60 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 20,021 | £12.80 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 30,918 | £9.20 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 1,479 | £49.40 |
| Match 4 | 2,170 | £23.60 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 706 | £98.00 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 35 | £1,074 |
| Match 5 | 6 | £20,107 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 2 | £258,089 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £44,214,819 |