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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£47,263,990
The crowdHeld 32% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/12 · since Sep 2016draw 728 of 1,049 under them
Sources3 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 September 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 65 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 84% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 73 of each
Times drawn before — chance expected 121 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 727 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (12, 21, 45) and 1 of 2 stars with the draw of 2 December 2022 — its closest relative in 727 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 97% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (12 September 2023): 14 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 11 repeated (32% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 140 — the 65th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →12 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 9% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈4.6M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang13 — 276,144 winners, 32% more than the 209k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| rang1 | 0 | €27,475,869 |
| rang2 | 1 | €264,520 |
| rang3 | 1 | €23,184 |
| rang4 | 8 | €2,222 |
| rang5 | 150 | €146 |
| rang6 | 321 | €70.30 |
| rang7 | 371 | €47.90 |
| rang8 | 4,519 | €16.40 |
| rang9 | 7,360 | €12.40 |
| rang10 | 18,509 | €9.70 |
| rang11 | 24,356 | €7.70 |
| rang12 | 111,090 | €5.80 |
| rang13 | 276,144 | €3.90 |