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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£185,548,000
The crowdHeld 18% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/12 · since Sep 2016draw 528 of 1,049 under them
Sources3 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 October 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 52 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 48% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 53 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 527 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (21, 26, 31) and 1 of 2 stars with the draw of 15 June 2021 — its closest relative in 527 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 92% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (12 October 2021): 49 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (32% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 161 — the 85th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →21 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 9% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈17M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang7 — 773 winners, 37% fewer than the 1.2k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| rang1 | 1 | €220,000,000 |
| rang2 | 1 | €4,608,446 |
| rang3 | 3 | €33,932 |
| rang4 | 21 | €1,416 |
| rang5 | 369 | €155 |
| rang6 | 993 | €60.60 |
| rang7 | 773 | €52.50 |
| rang8 | 15,516 | €13.70 |
| rang9 | 18,662 | €12.60 |
| rang10 | 39,959 | €10.90 |
| rang11 | 89,948 | €6.10 |
| rang12 | 296,467 | €5.70 |
| rang13 | 632,118 | €4.30 |