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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£11,698,500
The crowdHeld 68% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 503 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 502 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 1 March 2016 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 64 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 83% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 50 of each
Times drawn before — chance expected 91 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 502 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 7, 28, 37) and 1 of 2 stars with the draw of 21 November 2014 — its closest relative in 502 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 5.2% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (26 February 2016): 13 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 11 repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 89 — the 11th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →7 had not appeared for 30 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈17M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 2,801 winners, 141% more than the 1.2k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 1,228,114 | £2.20 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 417,649 | £6.40 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 106,733 | £9.20 |
| Match 3 | 100,943 | £5.50 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 21,383 | £16.30 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 32,322 | £10.30 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 1,533 | £49.70 |
| Match 4 | 2,801 | £38.10 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 922 | £116 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 38 | £3,210 |
| Match 5 | 9 | £27,103 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 4 | £0.00 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £11,698,500 |