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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£30,927,684
The crowdHeld 30% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 47 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 46 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 18 October 2011 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 57 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 64% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 5 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 46 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (23, 46) and 0 of 2 stars with the draw of 1 July 2011 — its closest relative in 46 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 97% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (14 October 2011): 23 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 172 — the 92th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →46 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 13% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈18M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 2 — 1,002,241 winners, 30% more than the 771k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 1,002,241 | £3.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 432,420 | £6.90 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 112,491 | £9.80 |
| Match 3 | 64,380 | £9.70 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 20,826 | £18.70 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 28,136 | £13.20 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 1,380 | £61.40 |
| Match 4 | 1,328 | £89.40 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 547 | £217 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 38 | £3,573 |
| Match 5 | 4 | — |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 2 | £407,335 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £30,927,684 |