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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£12,714,000
The crowdHeld 43% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/9 · Feb 2004 – May 2011draw 366 of 378 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/9 · Feb 2004 – May 2011 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 365 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 11 February 2011 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 21 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 3% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 37 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 365 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (12, 14, 15) and 1 of 2 stars with the draw of 3 September 2004 — its closest relative in 365 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 83% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (4 February 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (42% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 83 — the 7th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 14–15. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →12 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 2.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈34M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 3,522 winners, 67% more than the 2.1k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 0 | — |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 1,269,935 | £5.50 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 332,311 | £9.00 |
| Match 3 | 139,090 | £10.00 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 67,292 | £19.30 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 90,858 | £16.60 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 5,096 | £58.10 |
| Match 4 | 3,522 | £58.80 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 2,224 | £133 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 131 | £3,391 |
| Match 5 | 8 | £77,735 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 13 | £168,569 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £12,714,000 |