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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£49,417,448
The crowdHeld 36% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/9 · Feb 2004 – May 2011draw 363 of 378 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/9 · Feb 2004 – May 2011 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 362 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 January 2011 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 18 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 2% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 36 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 362 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (11, 13, 18) and 0 of 2 stars with the draw of 4 April 2008 — its closest relative in 362 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 82% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (14 January 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (42% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 66 — the 2th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →18 had not appeared for 30 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 2.1× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈43M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 plus Bonus Ball — 3,721 winners, 110% more than the 1.8k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 0 | — |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 1,519,303 | £4.70 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 419,668 | £7.10 |
| Match 3 | 173,266 | £8.10 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 91,338 | £14.40 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 127,320 | £11.90 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 7,318 | £40.80 |
| Match 4 | 5,003 | £41.80 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 3,721 | £80.30 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 183 | £2,451 |
| Match 5 | 30 | £20,934 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 17 | £130,178 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 2 | £24,708,724 |