In Eurojackpot under the 5/50 + 2/12 · since Mar 2022 rules — 475 draws, 5 from 1–50.
41times drawn · chance expected 48 −0.99σ
16draws waiting · a wait this long: 21% for any number
11.0average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0
49longest completed wait · 23% chance of one at least that long
40 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 41 times in 475 draws against 47.5 expected, −0.99σ. Each draw is independent: after 16 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
40
Number 40, draw by draw
Drawn 41 times in 475 draws · average wait 11.0 draws · longest completed wait 49 · waiting 16 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 3 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 2 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.