In Daily Grand under the 5/49 + 1/7 · since Apr 2025 rules — 159 draws, 5 from 1–49.
12times drawn · chance expected 16 −1.11σ
18draws waiting · a wait this long: 16% for any number
11.4average wait between appearances · chance says 9.8
37longest completed wait · 21% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 12 times in 159 draws against 16.2 expected, −1.11σ. Each draw is independent: after 18 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 12 times in 159 draws · average wait 11.4 draws · longest completed wait 37 · waiting 18 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 16 of the other 48 numbers; chance expects about 18 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/49 tonight whatever it did last week.