In Oz Lotto under the 7/47 + 3/47 · since May 2022 rules — 230 draws, 7 from 1–47.
40times drawn · chance expected 34 +1.06σ
2draws waiting · a wait this long: 85% for any number
5.7average wait between appearances · chance says 6.7
20longest completed wait · 85% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 40 times in 230 draws against 34.3 expected, +1.06σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 15 times, counted separately.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 40 times in 230 draws · average wait 5.7 draws · longest completed wait 20 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 46 numbers; chance expected about 0.2 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 47. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 7/47 tonight whatever it did last week.