Wednesday, 19 May 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (14, 27, 42) with the draw of 31 March 2021 — its closest relative in 1,160 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (15 May 2021): 15, 42 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 155 — the 55th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 14–15, 26–27. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

27 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 37% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.