Monday, 16 August 2010

Its nearest twin

Shares 2 of 4 numbers (21, 23) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 19 July 2010 — its closest relative in 64 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 97% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (12 August 2010): nothing carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (3% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 81 — the 66th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 72. Side-by-side numbers: 23–24. 31% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

24 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.