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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Revancha · every number · star deck
In Revancha under the 5/35 + 1/10 · since Jun 2025 rules — 208 draws, 1 from 1–10.
Drawn 25 times in 208 draws against 20.8 expected, +0.97σ. Each draw is independent: after 31 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 25 times in 208 draws · average wait 7.3 draws · longest completed wait 17 · waiting 31 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
No shared draws yet.
Never drawn alongside 9 of the other 9 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 10. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 10 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | 17 | 1st | 10 |
| 2026-06-24 | 1 | 1st | 10 |
| 2026-06-22 | 3 | 1st | 10 |
| 2026-06-15 | 5 | 1st | 10 |
| 2026-06-03 | 4 | 1st | 10 |
| 2026-05-25 | 4 | 1st | 10 |
| 2026-05-15 | 9 | 1st | 10 |
| 2026-04-24 | 13 | 1st | 10 |
| 2026-03-23 | 9 | 1st | 10 |
| 2026-03-02 | 6 | 1st | 10 |
| 2026-02-16 | 1 | 1st | 10 |
| 2026-02-13 | 1 | 1st | 10 |
| 2026-02-11 | 10 | 1st | 10 |
| 2026-01-19 | 12 | 1st | 10 |
| 2025-12-22 | 13 | 1st | 10 |
| 2025-11-21 | 10 | 1st | 10 |
| 2025-10-29 | 1 | 1st | 10 |
| 2025-10-27 | 7 | 1st | 10 |
| 2025-10-10 | 13 | 1st | 10 |
| 2025-09-10 | 4 | 1st | 10 |
| 2025-09-01 | 15 | 1st | 10 |
| 2025-07-28 | 6 | 1st | 10 |
| 2025-07-14 | 5 | 1st | 10 |
| 2025-06-30 | 5 | 1st | 10 |
| 2025-06-18 | — | 1st | 10 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 1/10 tonight whatever it did last week.