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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Powerball · draw
ResultPowerball
Jackpot$444,000,000
The crowdHeld 95% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/69 + 1/26 · since Oct 2015
Sources3 independent sources agree, 2 official. Settled 4 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Where the money went
The rings take the ≈20M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 2 — 29,527 winners, 96% fewer than the 710k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 5 + Powerball | 0 | $444,000,000 |
| Match 5 | 1 | $1,000,000 |
| Match 4 + Powerball | 17 | $50,000 |
| Match 4 | 345 | $100 |
| Match 3 + Powerball | 977 | $100 |
| Match 3 | 23,664 | $7.00 |
| Match 2 + Powerball | 20,877 | $7.00 |
| Match 1 + Powerball | 162,942 | $4.00 |
| Match 0 + Powerball | 400,626 | $4.00 |
| Match 2 | 29,527 | $8.00 |
| Match 5 (with Power Play) | 0 | $2,000,000 |
| Match 4 + Powerball (with Power Play) | 6 | $100,000 |
| Match 4 (with Power Play) | 101 | $200 |
| Match 3 + Powerball (with Power Play) | 285 | $200 |
| Match 3 (with Power Play) | 6,796 | $14.00 |
| Match 2 + Powerball (with Power Play) | 6,057 | $14.00 |
| Match 1 + Powerball (with Power Play) | 47,277 | $8.00 |
| Match 0 + Powerball (with Power Play) | 119,320 | $8.00 |
| Totals | 818,818 | — |