Sunday, 12 May 2024

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (4, 29, 30) with the draw of 30 July 2023 — its closest relative in 513 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 May 2024): 30 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 118 — the 76th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 29–30. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

38 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.