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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Take 5 · draw

Monday, 1 October 2018

ResultTake 5

Single source
  1. 2
  2. 4
  3. 14
  4. 23
  5. 36

Jackpot$63,954

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 · since Apr 2010draw 3,099 of 6,988 under them

← 2018-09-30All recent draws2018-10-02 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:51 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed2 4 14 23 3629 Aug 2026, 09:33 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 1 October 2018 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

51oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 51 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 49% of every possible ticket.

  • sum19th
  • odd9th
  • low64th
  • widest gap51th
  • neighbours28th
  • spread86th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 397 of each

2414times
4405times
14395times
23394times
36

Prize breakdown · 2018-10-01

  • Lines in play≈ 762kas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out$397.1Kto 87k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 9lines took a prize
  • Match 51 winnerchance said 1.3

Where the money went

  • Match 424%$95.9K
  • Match 340%$158.1K
  • Match 220%$79.2K
  • 1 other tier16%$64.0K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100kPrize each
  1. Match 51≈ 1.3 by chance$63,954

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

392times

Every number was expected about that many times after 3,098 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (2, 14, 23, 36) with the draw of 5 April 2013 — its closest relative in 3,098 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 60% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (30 September 2018): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

79

The numbers add up to 79 — the 19th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

2 had not appeared for 23 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
  • Match 4201≈ 225 by chance$477
  • Match 37,185≈ 7.4k by chance$22.00
  • Match 279,191≈ 79k by chance$1.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈762k lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 7,185 winners, 3% fewer than the 7.4k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 51$63,954
    Match 4201$477
    Match 37,185$22.00
    Match 279,191$1.00
    Totals86,578—