Wednesday, 30 June 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (6, 15, 17, 38) with the draw of 4 September 2014 — its closest relative in 3,389 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 67% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (29 June 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 53% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 107 — the 65th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 98. No two numbers side by side. 45% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

17 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.