Thursday, 20 August 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (6, 15, 18, 24) with the draw of 5 August 2010 — its closest relative in 3,075 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 64% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 August 2020): nothing carried over. Chance says 53% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 95 — the 45th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 98. No two numbers side by side. 45% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

15 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.