Tuesday, 28 July 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (4, 6, 17) with the draw of 19 May 2020 — its closest relative in 3,052 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (27 July 2020): 5 carried over. Chance says 53% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 65 — the 8th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 98. Side-by-side numbers: 4–5, 5–6. 45% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

17 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.