Thursday, 23 July 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 25, 31, 32) with the draw of 24 July 2010 — its closest relative in 1,653 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 42% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (22 July 2015): 31 carried over. Chance says 53% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 97 — the 48th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 98. Side-by-side numbers: 4–5, 31–32. 45% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

25 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.