Wednesday, 11 April 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (11, 19, 20) with the draw of 4 August 2010 — its closest relative in 210 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 92% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (7 April 2012): 11 carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 70 — the 13th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 95. Side-by-side numbers: 18–19, 19–20. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

2 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.