Monday, 12 July 2010

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (1, 19, 20) with the draw of 16 May 2010 — its closest relative in 96 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 85% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 July 2010): 1, 31 carried over. Chance says 61% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 86 — the 61th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 80. Side-by-side numbers: 19–20. 52% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

20 had not appeared for 7 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.