In Mega Millions under the 5/75 + 1/15 · Oct 2013 – Oct 2017 rules — 420 draws, 1 from 1–15 (an earlier era).
32times drawn · chance expected 28 +0.78σ
11draws waiting · a wait this long: 50% for any number
12.3average wait between appearances · chance says 15.0
49longest completed wait · 68% chance of one at least that long
10 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 32 times in 420 draws against 28.0 expected, +0.78σ. Each draw is independent: after 11 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
10
Number 10, draw by draw
Drawn 32 times in 420 draws · average wait 12.3 draws · longest completed wait 49 · waiting 11 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 14 of the other 14 numbers; chance expects about 14 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 15. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 1/15 tonight whatever it did last week.