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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Mega Millions · draw
ResultMega Millions
Jackpot$604,000,000
The crowdHeld 5% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025draw 132 of 158 under them
Sources3 independent sources agree, 2 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:47 UTC.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 10 July 2026 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 47 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 34% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 9 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 131 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (39, 46) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 17 June 2025 — its closest relative in 131 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (7 July 2026): 2 carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 187 — the 58th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 178. No two numbers side by side. 26% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →46 had not appeared for 59 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 53% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈8.6M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 + Mega Ball — 577 winners, 7% fewer than the 619 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 5 + Mega Ball | 0 | $604,000,000 |
| Match 5 | 1 | $1,000,000 |
| Match 4 + Mega Ball | 10 | $10,000 |
| Match 4 | 197 | $500 |
| Match 3 + Mega Ball | 577 | $200 |
| Match 3 | 13,584 | $10.00 |
| Match 2 + Mega Ball | 12,339 | $10.00 |
| Match 1 + Mega Ball | 98,303 | $7.00 |
| Match 0 + Mega Ball | 245,680 | $5.00 |