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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Bonus Match 5 under the 6/38 · since Aug 2026 rules — 6 draws, 6 from 1–38.
Drawn 2 times in 6 draws against 0.9 expected, +1.18σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 2 times in 6 draws · average wait 4.0 draws · longest completed wait 4 · drawn in the most recent draw
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Too few completed waits to plot a distribution for this number alone.
Sort a draw and 11 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 29 of the other 37 numbers; chance expects about 28 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 11 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 38. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 11 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 11 is drawn with probability 6/38 tonight whatever it did last week.