In Lotto under the 6/50 + 1/25 · since Apr 2025 rules — 228 draws, 6 from 1–50.
31times drawn · chance expected 27 +0.74σ
21draws waiting · a wait this long: 8% for any number
6.3average wait between appearances · chance says 8.3
32longest completed wait · 44% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 31 times in 228 draws against 27.4 expected, +0.74σ. Each draw is independent: after 21 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 31 times in 228 draws · average wait 6.3 draws · longest completed wait 32 · waiting 21 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 2 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 2 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 6/50 tonight whatever it did last week.