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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Powerball · draw

Saturday, 21 October 2023

ResultPowerball

Single source
  1. 8
  2. 13
  3. 26
  4. 29
  5. 33
  6. 40
  7. 4

JackpotNZ$4,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/10 · since Nov 2011draw 1,044 of 1,352 under them

← 2023-10-18All recent draws2023-10-25 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:39 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed8 13 26 29 33 40 + 429 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 October 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

63oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 63 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 75% of every possible ticket.

  • sum83th
  • odd50th
  • low21th
  • widest gap58th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread62th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 156 of each

8142times
13156times
26159times
29167times
33

Prize breakdown · 2023-10-21

  • Lines in play≈ 5.2Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$460Kto 19k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 271lines took a prize
  • Match 6 + Powerball0 winnerschance said 0.13

Where the money went

  • Match 4 + Powerball15%NZ$68K
  • Match 3 + Powerball52%NZ$241.1K
  • Match 3 + Bonus + Powerball14%NZ$63.7K
  • 3 other tiers19%NZ$87.3K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. Match 6 + Powerball0≈ 0.13 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

151times
40155times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 104 of each

496times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,043 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (8, 13, 29, 40) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 11 March 2020 — its closest relative in 1,043 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 90% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 October 2023): 13, 40 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

149

The numbers add up to 149 — the 83th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

33 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 23% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$4,000,000
  • Match 5 + Powerball29≈ 27 by chanceNZ$1,214
  • Match 4 + Powerball1,173≈ 1.1k by chanceNZ$58.00
  • Match 3 + Powerball16,070≈ 16k by chanceNZ$15.00
  • Match 5 + Bonus + Powerball2NZ$22,166
  • Match 4 + Bonus + Powerball76NZ$102
  • Match 3 + Bonus + Powerball1,675NZ$38.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈5.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Powerball — 1,173 winners, 4% more than the 1.1k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 6 + Powerball0NZ$4,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus + Powerball2NZ$22,166
    Match 5 + Powerball29NZ$1,214
    Match 4 + Bonus + Powerball76NZ$102
    Match 4 + Powerball1,173NZ$58.00
    Match 3 + Bonus + Powerball1,675NZ$38.00
    Match 3 + Powerball16,070NZ$15.00
    Totals19,025—