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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Powerball · draw

Saturday, 23 September 2023

ResultPowerball

Single source
  1. 15
  2. 25
  3. 27
  4. 28
  5. 37
  6. 40
  7. 5

JackpotNZ$11,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/10 · since Nov 2011draw 1,036 of 1,352 under them

← 2023-09-20All recent draws2023-09-27 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:39 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed15 25 27 28 37 40 + 529 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 23 September 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

39oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 39 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 20% of every possible ticket.

  • sum97th
  • odd79th
  • low5th
  • widest gap28th
  • neighbours63th
  • spread23th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 155 of each

15175times
25163times
27140times
28156times
37

Prize breakdown · 2023-09-23

  • Lines in play≈ 6.9Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$626Kto 25k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 273lines took a prize
  • Match 6 + Powerball0 winnerschance said 0.18

Where the money went

  • Match 4 + Powerball15%NZ$93K
  • Match 3 + Powerball51%NZ$322K
  • Match 3 + Bonus + Powerball14%NZ$88.9K
  • 3 other tiers19%NZ$122K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1M10M100MPrize each
  1. Match 6 + Powerball0≈ 0.18 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

146times
40153times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 104 of each

5118times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,035 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (15, 25, 27, 28) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 15 June 2019 — its closest relative in 1,035 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 90% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (20 September 2023): 27, 37 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

172

The numbers add up to 172 — the 97th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 27–28. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

28 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 21% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$11,000,000
  • Match 5 + Powerball51≈ 37 by chanceNZ$1,100
  • Match 4 + Powerball1,525≈ 1.5k by chanceNZ$61.00
  • Match 3 + Powerball21,467≈ 21k by chanceNZ$15.00
  • Match 5 + Bonus + Powerball3NZ$18,219
  • Match 4 + Bonus + Powerball98NZ$115
  • Match 3 + Bonus + Powerball2,117NZ$42.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈6.9M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Powerball — 1,525 winners, 1% more than the 1.5k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 6 + Powerball0NZ$11,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus + Powerball3NZ$18,219
    Match 5 + Powerball51NZ$1,100
    Match 4 + Bonus + Powerball98NZ$115
    Match 4 + Powerball1,525NZ$61.00
    Match 3 + Bonus + Powerball2,117NZ$42.00
    Match 3 + Powerball21,467NZ$15.00
    Totals25,261—