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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Powerball · draw

Saturday, 25 September 2021

ResultPowerball

Single source
  1. 5
  2. 16
  3. 19
  4. 23
  5. 33
  6. 40
  7. 1

JackpotNZ$16,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/10 · since Nov 2011draw 828 of 1,352 under them

← 2021-09-22All recent draws2021-09-29 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:39 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed5 16 19 23 33 40 + 129 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 25 September 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

60oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 60 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 68% of every possible ticket.

  • sum68th
  • odd79th
  • low50th
  • widest gap38th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread82th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 124 of each

5105times
16121times
19147times
23136times
33

Prize breakdown · 2021-09-25

  • Lines in play≈ 7.2Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$599.7Kto 26k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 274lines took a prize
  • Match 6 + Powerball0 winnerschance said 0.19

Where the money went

  • Match 4 + Powerball15%NZ$92.2K
  • Match 3 + Powerball56%NZ$335.1K
  • Match 3 + Bonus + Powerball15%NZ$88K
  • 2 other tiers14%NZ$84.4K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1M10M100MPrize each
  1. Match 6 + Powerball0≈ 0.19 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

114times
40124times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 83 of each

178times

Every number was expected about that many times after 827 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (5, 23, 40) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 18 August 2021 — its closest relative in 827 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (22 September 2021): 23 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

136

The numbers add up to 136 — the 68th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

16 had not appeared for 34 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 19% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$16,000,000
  • Match 5 + Powerball44≈ 38 by chanceNZ$1,664
  • Match 4 + Powerball1,562≈ 1.6k by chanceNZ$59.00
  • Match 3 + Powerball22,343≈ 22k by chanceNZ$15.00
  • Match 4 + Bonus + Powerball98NZ$114
  • Match 3 + Bonus + Powerball2,147NZ$41.00
  • Match 5 + Bonus + Powerball0no winners
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈7.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Powerball — 1,562 winners, 1% fewer than the 1.6k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 6 + Powerball0NZ$16,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus + Powerball0NZ$0.00
    Match 5 + Powerball44NZ$1,664
    Match 4 + Bonus + Powerball98NZ$114
    Match 4 + Powerball1,562NZ$59.00
    Match 3 + Bonus + Powerball2,147NZ$41.00
    Match 3 + Powerball22,343NZ$15.00
    Totals26,194—