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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 2 October 2024

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 10
  2. 12
  3. 22
  4. 28
  5. 31
  6. 39
  7. 17

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 1,144 of 1,359 under them

← 2024-09-28All recent draws2024-10-05 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed10 12 22 28 31 39 + 1729 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 2 October 2024 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

53oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 53 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 50% of every possible ticket.

  • sum76th
  • odd21th
  • low21th
  • widest gap28th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread43th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 171 of each

10183times
12182times
22181times
28174times
31

Prize breakdown · 2024-10-02

  • Lines in play≈ 7.8Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$1.5Mto 260k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 60 winnerschance said 2.0

Where the money went

  • Match 5 + Bonus16%NZ$244.2K
  • Match 433%NZ$486.9K
  • Match 3 + Bonus31%NZ$463.8K
  • 2 other tiers20%NZ$297.7K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 60≈ 2.0 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

177times
39156times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,143 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (10, 12, 22, 31, 39) with the draw of 11 January 2014 — its closest relative in 1,143 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 5.9% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (28 September 2024): 12, 28 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

142

The numbers add up to 142 — the 75th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

39 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 12% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus11≈ 12 by chanceNZ$22,203
  • Match 5378≈ 401 by chanceNZ$641
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,066≈ 1.0k by chanceNZ$52.00
  • Match 415,705≈ 16k by chanceNZ$31.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus22,086≈ 21k by chanceNZ$21.00
  • Match 3221,005≈ 221k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈7.8M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Bonus — 1,066 winners, 6% more than the 1.0k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 60NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus11NZ$22,203
    Match 5378NZ$641
    Match 4 + Bonus1,066NZ$52.00
    Match 415,705NZ$31.00
    Match 3 + Bonus22,086NZ$21.00
    Match 3221,005NZ$0.00
    Totals260,251—