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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 10 May 2023

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 4
  2. 20
  3. 22
  4. 31
  5. 35
  6. 38
  7. 29

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 998 of 1,359 under them

← 2023-05-06All recent draws2023-05-13 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed4 20 22 31 35 38 + 2929 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 10 May 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

41oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 41 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 24% of every possible ticket.

  • sum84th
  • odd21th
  • low21th
  • widest gap80th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread75th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 150 of each

4147times
20149times
22158times
31154times
35

Prize breakdown · 2023-05-10

  • Lines in play≈ 6.6Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$1.4Mto 221k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 60 winnerschance said 1.7

Where the money went

  • Match 5 + Bonus16%NZ$226K
  • Match 432%NZ$451.6K
  • Match 3 + Bonus32%NZ$444.8K
  • 2 other tiers20%NZ$275.7K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 60≈ 1.7 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

159times
38136times

Every number was expected about that many times after 997 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (4, 20, 31, 35) with the draw of 27 June 2020 — its closest relative in 997 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 89% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (6 May 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

150

The numbers add up to 150 — the 84th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

22 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 19% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus10≈ 10 by chanceNZ$22,598
  • Match 5329≈ 342 by chanceNZ$681
  • Match 4 + Bonus847≈ 854 by chanceNZ$61.00
  • Match 413,282≈ 14k by chanceNZ$34.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus17,793≈ 18k by chanceNZ$25.00
  • Match 3188,246≈ 188k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈6.6M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 13,282 winners, 3% fewer than the 14k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 60NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus10NZ$22,598
    Match 5329NZ$681
    Match 4 + Bonus847NZ$61.00
    Match 413,282NZ$34.00
    Match 3 + Bonus17,793NZ$25.00
    Match 3188,246NZ$0.00
    Totals220,507—