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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 15 December 2021

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 4
  2. 9
  3. 19
  4. 23
  5. 27
  6. 29
  7. 28

JackpotNZ$999,999

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 852 of 1,359 under them

← 2021-12-11All recent draws2021-12-18 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed4 9 19 23 27 29 + 2829 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 December 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

53oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 53 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 51% of every possible ticket.

  • sum33th
  • odd95th
  • low50th
  • widest gap28th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread23th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 128 of each

4120times
9123times
19151times
23139times
27

Prize breakdown · 2021-12-15

  • Lines in play≈ 7.3Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.2Mto 243k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 63 winnerschance said 1.9

Where the money went

  • Match 645%NZ$1M
  • Match 418%NZ$393.2K
  • Match 3 + Bonus17%NZ$384.2K
  • 3 other tiers20%NZ$445.5K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 63≈ 1.9 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

110times
29135times

Every number was expected about that many times after 851 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (4, 9, 23, 29) with the draw of 3 August 2013 — its closest relative in 851 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 85% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 December 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

111

The numbers add up to 111 — the 32th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

23 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$333,333
  • Match 5 + Bonus13≈ 11 by chanceNZ$15,429
  • Match 5482≈ 374 by chanceNZ$413
  • Match 4 + Bonus918≈ 935 by chanceNZ$50.00
  • Match 416,384≈ 15k by chanceNZ$24.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus19,210≈ 20k by chanceNZ$20.00
  • Match 3206,156≈ 206k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈7.3M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 16,384 winners, 9% more than the 15k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 63NZ$333,333
    Match 5 + Bonus13NZ$15,429
    Match 5482NZ$413
    Match 4 + Bonus918NZ$50.00
    Match 416,384NZ$24.00
    Match 3 + Bonus19,210NZ$20.00
    Match 3206,156NZ$0.00
    Totals243,166—