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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 12 October 2016

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 1
  2. 5
  3. 11
  4. 12
  5. 14
  6. 15
  7. 35

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 312 of 1,355 under them

← 2016-10-08All recent draws2016-10-15 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed1 5 11 12 14 15 + 3529 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 12 October 2016 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

12oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 12 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 0% of every possible ticket.

  • sum1th
  • odd79th
  • low99th
  • widest gap3th
  • neighbours91th
  • spread1th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 47 of each

146times
540times
1141times
1246times
14

Prize breakdown · 2016-10-12

  • Lines in play≈ 5.8Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.3Mto 33k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 178lines took a prize
  • Match 61 winnerchance said 1.5

Where the money went

  • Match 644%NZ$1.0M
  • Match 419%NZ$423.0K
  • Match 3 + Bonus18%NZ$402.3K
  • 3 other tiers20%NZ$454.9K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 61≈ 1.5 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

54times
1559times

Every number was expected about that many times after 311 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (5, 11, 14, 15) with the draw of 3 February 2016 — its closest relative in 311 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 50% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (8 October 2016): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

58

The numbers add up to 58 — the 1th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 11–12, 14–15. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

1 had not appeared for 28 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus9≈ 9.1 by chanceNZ$22,108
  • Match 5409≈ 302 by chanceNZ$506
  • Match 4 + Bonus742≈ 754 by chanceNZ$66.00
  • Match 415,668≈ 12k by chanceNZ$27.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus16,093≈ 16k by chanceNZ$25.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈5.8M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 15,668 winners, 30% more than the 12k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 61NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus9NZ$22,108
    Match 5409NZ$506
    Match 4 + Bonus742NZ$66.00
    Match 415,668NZ$27.00
    Match 3 + Bonus16,093NZ$25.00
    Match 30—
    Totals0—