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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 21 September 2016

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 10
  2. 11
  3. 17
  4. 21
  5. 31
  6. 34
  7. 15

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 306 of 1,356 under them

← 2016-09-17All recent draws2016-09-24 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed10 11 17 21 31 34 + 1529 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 September 2016 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

68oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 68 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 85% of every possible ticket.

  • sum51th
  • odd79th
  • low50th
  • widest gap28th
  • neighbours63th
  • spread19th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 46 of each

1039times
1137times
1751times
2148times
31

Prize breakdown · 2016-09-21

  • Lines in play≈ 4.7Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.0Mto 23k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 202lines took a prize
  • Match 61 winnerchance said 1.2

Where the money went

  • Match 651%NZ$1.0M
  • Match 416%NZ$323.7K
  • Match 3 + Bonus16%NZ$311.5K
  • 3 other tiers17%NZ$343.3K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 61≈ 1.2 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

48times
3440times

Every number was expected about that many times after 305 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (10, 21, 31) with the draw of 2 April 2016 — its closest relative in 305 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 September 2016): 34 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

124

The numbers add up to 124 — the 51th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 10–11. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

17 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 12% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus5≈ 7.4 by chanceNZ$29,996
  • Match 5229≈ 243 by chanceNZ$681
  • Match 4 + Bonus584≈ 608 by chanceNZ$64.00
  • Match 49,521≈ 9.7k by chanceNZ$34.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus12,979≈ 13k by chanceNZ$24.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈4.7M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Bonus — 584 winners, 4% fewer than the 608 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 61NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus5NZ$29,996
    Match 5229NZ$681
    Match 4 + Bonus584NZ$64.00
    Match 49,521NZ$34.00
    Match 3 + Bonus12,979NZ$24.00
    Match 30—
    Totals0—